Football Betting Guide

Learn what factors determine opening lines and successfully use this info to your advantage

Before we jump right into some successful angles to take when betting football, college or the pros, lets take a look at how the opening lines are established and what factors determine where those lines open at. Linesmakers look at several key aspects such as: power ratings, homefield advantage, key matchups between the teams, trends, and how the public financially backs the two teams on a game by game basis. By understanding how and why the bookmakers set the lines where they do will give you an advantage as you begin to make a case for the team you wish to put action on.

Power Rankings- Are simply a numerical value given to symbolize a team's overall talent, ability, and to a certain extent potential. The better teams will carry a higher number value, while the worst teams will be tagged with a lower number value. For college and the NFL my rankings are broken into three primary categories, Offense, Defense, Special Teams, and several sub categories such as: Passing Offense, Passing Defense&and so on and so fourth. The hardest part about establishing an accurate and functional power rating system is keeping it updated. Since power ratings have such a great influence on opening lines I would recommend any gambler take a few minutes in the off season to establish his or her own power ratings system. If you are extremely tapped on time then a simple search on the Internet should produce some efficient sources for power rankings.

Home Field Advantage- Is perhaps the most overlooked factor when making the choice of which team to place action on. It is no secrete that Joe Public loves to put action on favorites and this is an area that many people fall victim to. The bookmaker knows that the public is more inclined to bet a team that is 9-4 on the road than put their faith in a team that is 4-9 and playing at home. Using this knowledge the bookmaker will usually over inflate the line. Since 2000- all the way up to this year you could have taken every home underdog in the NFL and hit at about a 57% clip. As more people begin to catch onto this trend the bookmakers have adjusted the lines a bit. However, you can still exploit this weakness by doing some careful research. Always remember that as a general rule of thumb the line should be adjusted 3 points in favor of the visiting team unless some unusual factors such as injuries or poor home field performances come into play.

Key Matchups- This is the most influential factor on opening lines. Oddsmakers will spend hours dissecting matchups such as, O-line vs. D-line, Pass offense vs. Passing defense&and so on. Weather you are an experienced handicapper or a casual gambler YOU MUST DO SOME RESEARCH IN THIS AREA to have any type of long-term success. In most cases you will find that success and the time spent researching matchups have a direct profound relationship. The more time you spend analyzing the teams involved the more success you will have picking the correct side or total.

Trends- Trends are historical data gathered from previously played games. Oddsmakers do take this into consideration but do not factor this aspect into the lines as much as they should. The reason for this is simple. The books know that the public will bet the favorite (9-4 Rams) even if they are 0 for their last 5 when playing on grass on the road. This is an area that players can take complete advantage of since the oddsmakers do not take trends into "serious" consideration. You do not have to have countless files or be a human sports almanac to take advantage and exploit this weakness. All you need to do is read a few game matchups from a few different sites and for the most part they will mention some trends in the writeup.

Public Financial Backing- Simply put, who does the public like? Everyone has heard that bookmakers love to have balanced action because the house cannot lose. While this is true it also somewhat of a myth. The books will adjust their lines according to what they perceive the public will do. For instance if a team that is 11-2 is on the road playing a team that is 5-8 the book may opt to over adjust the line and inflate the number so to speak. This has all the makings of what is known as a "trap game". This type of strategy also works the opposite way. The key is accurately determining which way the line is over adjusted.

There are several different strategies used by bookmakers to help influence which side the money comes in on. They can limit the amount of action on a game by posting a total or side that is just too risky to play. For instance they may post a game total of 33 when two defensive teams play one another. This will either shy people away or cause balanced action locking in the books built in profit. Or they may use the trap tactic in special situations as they arise. Another useful tactic is using key numbers to their advantage. For example, the book may be unsure as to which way the line is going to move so the set the side at 5. This means that the line can move a full point without crossing any key numbers (many football games end with a 4 or 6 differential as apposed to a 5).

Now that you know the enemy, you can determine several different angles to take before putting action on a game. In order to be a successful player you NEED to do some type of research. The secrets to success are simple. Know your enemy (the bookmaker) and try to understand why a line is set where it is. Do your homework. Use what you have seen in the games that you have watched. Never ever bet with your heart or on a team just because they "should" win by 14.

posted by Anonymous @ 8:25 AM

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