Jaguars on the road to success

If you’re looking at Jacksonville as being one of the bad teams in the NFL, stop it. Any team finishing second in run defense, combined with having a stud running back, a promising quarterback and a good offensive line can do damage.

Did you know the Jaguars outgained their opponents by more than 700 yards? Were you aware only five teams allowed fewer yards than Jacksonville? Do you realize Byron Leftwich threw more than one touchdown pass per start despite being a rookie and having below-average wide receivers?

Take a closer look at Jacksonville’s 5-11 record. This is a team that went 4-4 in its final eight games, and outgained six of its last seven foes. The Jaguars are not a public team. They are beneath the radar screen, so they can hold some value on the betting line.


Jacksonville has, however, drawn future book play already. The Jaguars have been bet down from around 50-1 into the 35-1 range. I’m not advocating them as any kind of Super Bowl contender this year. They are in a strong division with Indianapolis, Tennessee and improved Houston. But the Jaguars certainly could be a winner for those looking to go over Jacksonville’s over/under regular season win total of 7 1/2.

Leftwich is far from being a finished product, but he now has had a full year running the offense. He looked good during the team’s mini-camps. During the offseason, the Jaguars upgraded their receiving corps and added depth to their offensive line. No longer is Matthew Hatchette their No. 1 wideout like he was at the start of last season.

Defensively, the Jaguars revamped their secondary, which should be decent. If veterans Hugh Douglas and Tony Brackens can provide a pass rush, something they failed to do last year, the Jaguars could have an elite defense because their run defense is that good. Marcus Stroud and John Henderson are the most underrated defensive tackle tandem in the NFL. Jacksonville held opponents to just 3.2 yards per rush.

What the Jaguars need to do is learn how to win and improve their special teams. Punter Chris Hanson, a Pro Bowler two years ago, has to come back from a freakish leg injury. This is not a given. Coach Jack Del Rio also must come up with a reliable place-kicker. Seth Marler was the worst kicker in the NFL last season. He missed a staggering 13 field goals, barely converting 60 percent. It got so bad the Jaguars actually stopped attempting field goals.

Still, the Jaguars are dangerous enough to spring upsets. Even if they don’t, they’re a threat to go over their posted 7 1/2-win total just on winnable games. Jacksonville hosts the Lions, Bears, Steelers and Texans. Among their road games are matchups against the Bills, Chargers, Texans and Raiders.

Fred Taylor could be the most dangerous player to take in fantasy football. Taylor has first-round talent, but owners are still leery of taking him that high. Prior to last year, Taylor had played in only 65 percent of his team’s games. Healthy for once, Taylor accounted for 1,942 yards from scrimmage last season.

Taylor does figure to go second round. The question is, do you want to be the one pulling the trigger on him? The Jaguars are a run-first team and they have the offensive linemen to make it work. Despite the Jaguars drafting powerful running back Greg Jones, who could vulture touchdowns away from Taylor, taking Taylor midway through the second round is good value strategy. Running backs are just too valuable.

Jimmy Smith still has some speed and is worthy of being a No. 2 wide receiver on your fantasy team. He shouldn’t be your lead wide receiver anymore, though. Leftwich is too risky to start as your fantasy quarterback. He’s strictly a fantasy backup for now. The rest of the Jaguars aren’t worth considering.

Jacksonville is a team devoid of flashy stars. The Jaguars are a tough, defensive-minded type team. They remind me of the Tennessee Titans of 1998, who went 8-8. The following year the Titans improved their defense and a young, emerging Steve McNair rode them to the Super Bowl.

posted by Anonymous @ 1:04 PM

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